Army gave up three sacks last season because it never throws. Hawaii gave up 46, the second most in FBS, because all it does is throw. Turnovers are based on luck, to a certain extent. But how an oblong ball bounces after a fumble, or where it flies after a tipped pass, is random on a given play or in a given game. Our Collin Wilson loves betting on teams that create havoc , and there are certain defensive coordinators who coach it best.
If a team has an unusually positive turnover margin one year, it will often come crashing down the next year. Connelly and Football Outsiders have boiled down the success of a football team into five factors. Essentially, how often do you put yourself in a good position to move the chains? Success Rate has the highest correlation to winning games.
A yard touchdown pass is incredibly valuable because it covers all the yards remaining to score. There was no way that team could have gained more than 35 yards on that play, even if the ballcarrier was 15 yards clear of the closest defender. Just look at the points a team expects to score on 1st-and, by yard line. Field Position: Special teams is obviously a huge part of this, but the offenses and defenses feed off each other here.
But you can use certain advanced statistics to find matchups where one team excels and one team struggles and make a bet in part based on that. Opportunity Rate vs. Gaining those first five yards are thought to be a product of offensive line play. Stuff rate is how often a defense tackles a player at or behind the line of scrimmage. Explosiveness vs.
Adjusted Sack Rate vs. You just need to recondition yourself to love great punts, three consecutive running plays that go for 11 yards and turnovers in the red zone, and you will too. More plays and more possessions mean more points. CFBAnalytics has some other good tempo measures, like possessions per game and plays per possession. The trouble is that the market is already factoring in these pace numbers, so you need to spot opportunities where you think a team might change its normal pace.
When betting unders, I like teams that run the ball. It keeps the clock moving. Conversely, there are certain defenses that teams like to pass against on first down. Teams love to run against Bowling Green, however second of And nowhere near MLB. A lot of his work there is still applicable. FO pioneered many advanced NFL metrics, and did the same for college.
CFB Professor. This constantly provides great frustration for Over bettors. Weather, particularly wind. Studies have shown that precipitation decreases scoring over the long haul. Occasionally it does. They study decades of results. Only recently has the market started paying more attention to this.
Again, nothing is right all the time. But any stadium with swirling or gusty winds will wreak havoc on the passing game and field goal attempts. Quants, of course, have models that can do this thousands of times. The same principles of logic apply either way. The total in the NFL is probably at least in that case, maybe plus in the colleges. Most fans have the same gut reactions when high-scoring teams play each other.
Not much value there. The market knows about the rules changes. You can find winners. Work hard to find a handful of edges, particularly in games in which public misperceptions are having an undue influence on game-day prices. The key factors for finding vulnerable totals to bet are: Evaluating the scoring skill sets of the offenses.
Evaluating the point-denial skill sets of the defenses. Evaluating the pace of the offenses. Evaluating the ability or inability of the offenses to run clock with a lead. Evaluating game conditions that will influence scoring, such as weather and field surface. Not enough attention is paid to: Defenses, particularly the ability of some defenses to force field goal attempts rather than allow touchdowns.
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