key numbers in basketball betting

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Key numbers in basketball betting making money betting online

Key numbers in basketball betting

Need more winning picks? The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. OddsShark does not target an audience under the age of Please visit gambleaware.

Google Tag Manager. Oddshark logo linked to Home. Close Menu. Odds Shark Top Sportsbooks 1. Visit operator for details. Key Numbers Facebook Twitter Reddit. Key Numbers in Football In football, the most obvious key number is 3 points.

What Does Mean? You can see how the 3 looms large over the rest of the field, and how 3 and 7 in combination dwarf the others. A quick reminder that the real-world impact on your bets is less than those numbers suggest. Bettors should just leave the game alone.

But if the number nudges down to Were the line to nudge higher to Sharps try to make accurate assessments of the percentages in play, then bet based on the numbers. But they turn those assessments into a number they can compare with the market price or a scatter-gram range representing where the final scoreboard margin is most likely to land.

Moving a favorite of Headlines View All. A long shot 10 months ago turned into The two ran a quick hand-off Monday Myths: They Knew

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The reasoning behind this boils down to the act of fouling at the end of the game. When the scoring margin gets to seven points, it becomes a three-possession game, and the losing team will end up conceding most of the time. The three-point shot will keep most good-shooting basketball teams in a game if they are within striking distance.

That is, until time runs out on them. Need more winning picks? The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country.

Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. OddsShark does not target an audience under the age of Please visit gambleaware.

Google Tag Manager. Oddshark logo linked to Home. Close Menu. Odds Shark Top Sportsbooks 1. Basketball bettors have their choice of the point spread or money line when betting parlays , in which all the selected teams must win their games in order for you to win your bet. Point spread parlays are paid out at fixed odds , since the point spread theoretically makes all teams a proposition of covering the spread.

Money-line parlays are calculated using the odds of each team in the parlay and the formula for calculating the payouts was presented in Chapter 4. Plenty of parlay calculators are online for those not wanting to do the math themselves, especially when the parlay uses a combination of point spread and money-line wagers. For payout purposes, point spread teams in your parlay are calculated as favorites.

If you wanted to calculate the payout involving the Knicks -4 and the Heat , the first step would be to divide 1 by 1. Next, divide 1 by 1. When you multiply 1. Basketball teasers work exactly the same way as football teasers, although players receive fewer points in which they can move the line. As with parlays, all teams in your teaser must win or the entire bet is declared a loss. Basketball teasers pay off just as they do in football: the first number listed is the amount you stand to win, while the second number is the amount you risk.

Basketball pleasers follow the same principles as they do in football. The payouts between sportsbooks vary more with pleasers than traditional bets. As a general rule, bettors have to move the point spread a minimum of 5. A two-team pleaser involving two NBA sides moved 5. Most sportsbooks limit the number of teams in a pleaser to six, as a six-team pleaser consisting of a combination of 5. First-half lines are posted on all NBA games and the majority of college basketball games, meaning the bets are decided on the score at halftime.

These bets tend to be close to half the full-game point spread and total for the NBA, although large favorites of 10 or more points are generally favored a little more than half the full-game spread. Heavy college basketball favorites are also favored by more than half the total spread, typically a bit more so than in the NBA, but college totals are a different story, as college games are expected to have more scoring in the second half than the first.

This is because college teams are more prone to foul than they are in the NBA in the final two minutes , which stops the clock and allows one team to shoot free throws.

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Need more winning picks? The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team.

OddsShark does not target an audience under the age of Please visit gambleaware. Google Tag Manager. Oddshark logo linked to Home. Close Menu. Odds Shark Top Sportsbooks 1. Visit operator for details. Key Numbers Facebook Twitter Reddit. Key Numbers in Football In football, the most obvious key number is 3 points. What Does Mean? As with football, the most common method of betting basketball involves the point spread.

Also similarly, bettors are asked to lay to odds. A team is just as likely to win by five points as by three. The second most popular method of wagering on basketball, a total is the predicted combined score of the two teams playing. The point spread and totals make up the vast majority of basketball wagers, but again, same as football, bettors have the money-line options available to them.

One is the money line, a bet on the winner without the spread, using odds. Basketball bettors have their choice of the point spread or money line when betting parlays , in which all the selected teams must win their games in order for you to win your bet. Point spread parlays are paid out at fixed odds , since the point spread theoretically makes all teams a proposition of covering the spread.

Money-line parlays are calculated using the odds of each team in the parlay and the formula for calculating the payouts was presented in Chapter 4. Plenty of parlay calculators are online for those not wanting to do the math themselves, especially when the parlay uses a combination of point spread and money-line wagers.

For payout purposes, point spread teams in your parlay are calculated as favorites. If you wanted to calculate the payout involving the Knicks -4 and the Heat , the first step would be to divide 1 by 1. Next, divide 1 by 1. When you multiply 1.

Basketball teasers work exactly the same way as football teasers, although players receive fewer points in which they can move the line. As with parlays, all teams in your teaser must win or the entire bet is declared a loss. Basketball teasers pay off just as they do in football: the first number listed is the amount you stand to win, while the second number is the amount you risk. Basketball pleasers follow the same principles as they do in football.

The payouts between sportsbooks vary more with pleasers than traditional bets. As a general rule, bettors have to move the point spread a minimum of 5.

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Since it is also important to pay attention to score combinations, 10 is the next most important key number, the value of a field goal and a touchdown together. The spread, in this case, is 3, which as we know is the most important key number in NFL. In this case, the bookmakers think the game will be fairly close, with the Patriots the favorite.

Since the most common winning margin for a favorite by far is 3 points if they were to move the Patriots to In some cases, they will change the odds on each team rather than change the spread. That may look like this:. A good way to think about this is that the difference between -3 and The thing to watch out for is when the point spread is either a key number or just over or under a key number.

Once you get used to all the key numbers in NFL, you will automatically view the point spread through the lens of key numbers,. One important thing to remember is that key numbers are not some magic formula to winning sports bets. Bookmakers are well aware of key numbers too and set their lines accordingly. Instead, we should think of key numbers as one of many important factors that we consider as smart sports bettors, like odds. They are not a cheat code, but understanding them will absolutely make you a more successful bettor.

Here are some practical strategies involving key numbers:. Different bookmakers offer different prices. Often, comparing the different odds available can give you more information. If you find four bookmakers offering the odds in our example bet:. Many bookmakers allow you to buy points on the spread. This effectively means you can choose your own point spread. This might look like this:. Since you know how important key numbers are in the point spread, you can accept slightly worse odds to move the point spread on or off a key number.

However, as always the bookmakers are aware of this. They will likely charge you higher odds to buy a point or half a point around a key number. However, there are still plenty of occasions that buying the points around key numbers is worth it. It is up to you to spot the value. The important thing is that your predictions and bets are informed by the value of key numbers.

In the NFL, key numbers in point total betting are also determined by the value of the scores and their various combinations. The most common total points scored, and therefore key numbers for point total betting, in order of importance are:. Just like in the point spread, the key is to look for times when the point total line is a key number.

Generally, point total betting is a simple way to bet. Do you think the total points will more or less than this number? Here are some easy to follow tips for factoring key numbers into your totals bets. It is worth repeating that key numbers are not a cheat code but they do give you another factor to compare when shopping for the best odds at different sportsbooks. This sounds simple but being a good sports bettor involves plenty of simple and methodical actions like actually doing the legwork of checking around for the best price.

A slightly more complicated situation arises if you have a very specific prediction for your point total bet, maybe from predictive betting software. Take our example again:. Say your model predicted that the total score will be Without understanding key numbers, you might think that betting on the Under here is a good bet, according to your prediction. However, we know that of the seven most common point totals, five are over 41 and two are under.

Now imagine your model predicted that the total score would be Since you know about the key numbers, the Over 41 suddenly looks a very attractive bet based on the most common outcomes. Depending on the odds, it may be possible to buy a point total closer to a key number which makes sense for your prediction, which you would pay for with slightly worse odds. Or, perhaps you could simply find a better points total by shopping around.

Either way, understanding key numbers in points totals gives you a much deeper understanding of when you should bet them. In general, everything we have covered so far applies to college football as well as the NFL.

The most common winning margins in college football are 3, 7 and 10, and the strategies for keeping an eye out for key numbers are the same. One is that NFL is generally more competitive than college football, meaning that the games are often closer. College football is less predictable, meaning the key numbers are less reliable. Since college football is less competitive, more points are scored on average. This means that the point totals tend to be higher. The most common total points scored in college football, and therefore key number for point total betting, in order of importance are:.

These numbers are based on the last five years. The strategies to use these numbers are exactly the same as in the NFL, just be aware that the numbers are different. However, they still play a part and bettors should be aware of them.

The value of the scores available in basketball are 2 and 3 and 1 for free throws. This is what determines the most likely winning margin in close games. The most important key number in NBA betting is 7. This is because when there are 7 points between the teams, the game becomes a three possession game. If this is the case with close to a minute left, teams will frequently stop fouling and simply let the game run out.

Basically, if there are seven points between the teams and the game is almost over, the losing team will just accept that the game is over, resulting in a 7-point margin of victory. After 7, 2 is the next most important number. The reason for this is that for any differential in score from with a minute left to play, the greatest number of scenarios leads to an outcome of a two-point differential.

However, it should be noted that the distribution of outcomes for all these numbers is very similar. Regarding point total bets, key numbers in basketball simply do not play a role in these predictions in the same way that they do for point total bets in the NFL. Making a good point total bet in the NBA relies way more on team, player and game factors.

Overall, while not as important in the NBA, key numbers are something all bettors should be aware of. Sports betting is a game of fine margins, and the more information available the more ready you will be to capitalize on those margins. Baseball and hockey both have much more straightforward scoring systems. For these reasons, key numbers are much less important in betting on these sports. However, there are some minor exceptions. Close games are frequently decided by a single score in these sports, either a run in baseball or a goal in hockey.

Knowing this is essentially the same as being aware that NFL games are most likely to be decided by 3 points. You can find good value in handicap betting based around a single point margin. Since one goal is the most likely differential a key number this kind of bet can be valuable. You can also look at the most common total points scored in the same way as in NFL.

However, this number is not affected by the type of scores in the game, since all scores are worth the same. For example, in the MLB the most common total runs scored in a game is 7, followed by 9. Although they are not as powerful as in the NFL, knowing information like this can help make you a more successful bettor. There are a couple of important things to remember about key numbers in sports betting.

The first is that they are a tool to become a winning bettor, not a magic spell. Think of key numbers as one of many important factors such as odds, team and player histories, trends and injuries. To make consistently smart bets you have to be aware of all of these factors and more. Any time you are betting on the spread in football, you should always consider the key number situation.

Football point total bets are similarly affected by key numbers. Remember to always keep them in mind. Always remember to shop around for spreads and totals that land on key numbers, and remember to consider buying points around key numbers. Learning when to use these strategies will add more tools to your betting toolbox. If you are living in state where sports betting is legal, check the spreads now to look for key number patterns. All across the US, more and more states are relaxing their sports betting laws since the Supreme Court removed the federal ban on sports betting in May It could be sooner than you think, say 3 months, 7 weeks or 10 days.

For the latest information on legal sports betting all over the United States, check our guides to legal sports betting in every US state. This page contains everything you need to know to start using key numbers to your advantage right now, including: What key numbers are and how you can use them to bet on sports. If you think about it, this makes sense. It is much more common for a team to win by a field goal or a touchdown than it is for them to win by, say 2 points simply because the most common way of scoring is a field goal 3 points followed by a touchdown 7 points.

Follow the links below for more detailed information on key numbers in the NFL and college football. Key numbers work a bit differently in basketball than they do in football. For one, the key numbers for the NBA and college hoops are similar, but not the same.

What might surprise you is that the key number for college basketball betting is only 3 points, while the key number for the NBA happens to be 5 points. While you might think that college basketball teams are more susceptible to blowouts, what most people fail to remember is that NBA teams tend to foul at a much higher rate when the game is close and when they do the team in the lead is more likely to make their free throws and end up winning the game by more points.