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This means the back odds may be extremely low for your team - something like 1. There would be almost on point in cashing out this bet, as the profit will be tiny and could result you in taking a loss overall due to your original qualifying loss. In this situation, I would recommend leaving the bet and hoping that the opponents get 1 goal back and then cash out if the back odds are reasonable. Note from Chris, as mentioned in the 2Up guide, I recommend setting yourself a rule e. There is nothing worse than being not sure whether to cash out or let it ride and then making a gut feeling decision.
As when it goes against you it sucks, so it's safest just to set yourself a rule and stick to it! Sometimes you may wish to only cash out part of your profits and let the rest ride to see if the opponents score again to make an even bigger profit.
This is a bad strategy as you're essentially gambling profits that you already have, in hope that the other team brings it back. It is however favoured by some, hence the mention. Trading out at does not offer great value if the back odds are low, therefore you could consider leaving part of your bet to run and lock in some profit at and the rest at should you get lucky and the opponents come back into the game.
It will then give you the back stake as well as the two profits amount you will make, depending on the match outcome:. If you place your back bet manually as instructed in this guide, your bet will be queued and matched as and when liquidity appears, just like a lay bet would. Alternatively, you can always use the Bet or a bookie of your choice, just remember to adjust the back odds.
Always allow enough time for the goal to be confirmed before trading out. Facebook Group - ask over 30, fellow matched bettors including the Team! See the chat module at the bottom right of site. Start Learning. Calculator My History Blog. As a responsible bettor, it is important to understand proper bankroll management. Your payout includes your potential winnings, plus whatever you bet originally. Sports Betting.
Best Books. Bet Amount. Bet Type Single Bet Parlay. American Odds. Decimal Odds. Fractional Odds. Implied Odds. What are American Odds?
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This way, the data was not as specific but it gave a clearer picture of what was going on. Below is the graph that I came up with:. As you can see, the x-axis gives the end of the time interval. In other words, the bar over 50 on the x-axis represents the number of goals scored in the minute time range. The y-axis is the frequency, or number of goals in that time range.
There are also 3 lines on the graph. The middle line gives the mean number of goals across all the time intervals. The top line is the mean number of goals across all the time intervals plus the standard deviation of the number of goals. The bottom line is the same thing but subtracting one standard deviation. I added these to the graph because they provide nice reference points to help determine time intervals that can be considered outliers.
The first thing that sticks out from looking at the graph is the number of goals scored between minutes It seems that a lot of goals are scored right before the halftime mark. This is pretty interesting, and something that I was not necessarily expecting. It is also probably the worst time to give up a goal; instead of going in to the half tied or up by one, a club would instead be going in to the locker room down by one or tied.
Another piece of the plot that is the difference between the height of the bars in the first half compared to the height of those in the second half. In the first half, the number of goals is right around the lower part of the interval. In the second half, the number of goals is around the upper part of the interval.
Clearly, more goals are scored in the second half of games, which is probably not the first time someone has pointed this out. There are a number of takeaways from this plot. First, the final 5 minutes of the first half is a vital period of time in the game.
Clubs should bear down and play more defensively than usual, especially considering the fact that you don't want to go in to the half having just let up a goal. Second, I was thinking that there could be applications to betting. While I don't bet on soccer games myself, the information could be useful for someone placing a bet on the time a goal is scored, or even when the first goal of the game is scored.
If you do put a bet on it, just don't come back complaining to me if it doesn't work out! Your browser does not support iframes. The video below describes the Football Markets calculator. For a bigger view, click on the small 4 cornered icon, bottom right of the YouTube screen.
Copyright notice. In the video below, Betfair content shown is for demonstration purposes only, and is presented with the kind permission of The Sporting Exchange Limited. Analyse any on-line football strategy video. Quite often when we watch an on-line football trading video, there is no explanation of the aim of the trade, or the basic strategy. I originally put this calculator together so that I could work out football trading strategies from watching YouTube videos.
This is how I go about that Using this calculator to keep track of your personal trade? If analysing a video trade :- Following a video trade is not easy. In your chosen video, a skilled trader may start from a red position, but trade into profit as the game progresses. That red start may not be obvious from the video or commentary, but the green column in the calculator will show what is happening. It may pay to take note of game selection in relation to the opening bets and lays shown in your chosen video..
Hit a game that doesn't go according to expectations, and even a skilled trader may have problems making an exit with profit or an acceptable loss. This calculator may help you to see how a trade started, and how it progressed all the way to an exit. I repeat, "Following a video trade is not easy". Exact Goals odds. A guide to. How many goals do the markets expect will be scored? We all look at Match Odds to see which team is most likely to win, but where do we go from there? If there was one, I have no doubt at all that an Exact Goals market in Betfair would be the 2nd thing to look at, but there is no such market.
B etfair doesn't have a market for the Exact Number of goals to be scored. We can use Correct Score to work out Exact Goal odds, but the normal Correct Score market bunches odds together for scores with 4 goals or more, with scores shown for such as , , , , , , , , etc. The result of that is that we can work out accurate Exact Goals odds for 0, 1, 2, or 3 goals if we use only the normal Correct Score market, but for bigger scores, things get more complicated.
To look at Exact Goal odds for 4, 5, 6, or more goals we would need to look at 2 more Correct Score markets as well. Also, in games with poor liquidity, there can be big gaps between bet and lay odds in Correct Score markets, or even no odds at all. For example :- If you bet Under 1. Using those 2 bits of information, we can work out the odds for 2 goals. We can of course do the same for other exact numbers of goals. In the calculator below, input bet or lay odds to see both bet and lay odds for Exact Goals.
The column on the right shows the odds used to work out the Exact Number of Goals odds, but to understand how the odds have been worked out, a bit of reverse logic is required. Note that we do not need Over 0. Also, we don't need Under 8. A quick way to see what score will have the Favourite odds is to look in Betfair and compare the Over goal odds of one market with the Under goal odds of the market above.
For example compare Over 1. If the odds of both are less than 2. In that example, if Over 1. If it is odds-on that there will be more than 1. You do not need inputs in all the cells,. The favourite odds will be in red. Compare the 2nd and 3rd fav odds. To bet or lay Exact Goals, it costs less in commission to Dutch the scores that add up to your number of goals in the normal Correct Score market..
BUT the normal Correct Score market only covers up to 3 goals of course. The Exact Goals video below demonstrates the calculator. The result of the game in the video was Bristol City 4 - 1 Crystal Palace,. Football trading commission rates.
If you trade football using more than one market, you will probably be paying well above your normal commission rate. As you know, if we bet and lay in a single market, losses are combined with winnings and we only pay commission if there is a profit overall.
If there is no overall profit, we break even or make a loss , Betfair and Betdaq charge zero commission. If we bet and lay in more than one market, each of those markets is treated separately for commission deductions. The result of that is that if we make a loss in one market but a profit in a 2nd market, total losses are not deducted from total winnings before commission. Make a small profit in one market, but a bigger loss in a 2nd market, and we pay commission in the winning market, even though we make an overall loss on the whole trade.
In that situation, we pay commission. Use the calculator below to show your TRUE commission rate in past trades, or to test and improve your football strategy commission rate. In the calculator below input your normal commission rate, top left in the orange cell. Name your markets and enter profit or loss for each separate market that you have used, and enter any commission paid.
For past trades, you can get that information from your exchange account statement. Enter a loss with a minus sign, with no spaces. Those 2 totals are used to show the commission rate that you have been charged for the whole trade across your markets, in the yellow highlighted cell to the right..
The column on the far right shows the returns for your trade if you were able to place all your bets and lays in a single market, such as Correct Score, and pay your normal commission rate. If you trade across more than one market, you may have more than one market with winnings. If you make a profit in one market but a loss in another, for example a losing "Insurance bet", you WILL be paying well above your normal commission rate. Test to improve your strategy.
Input your normal commission rate, top left in the orange cell. Input potential profit or loss, plus commission paid at your normal rate where you anticipate a profit. If you anticipate a loss in a market, enter the loss for that market in the P or L column. You may decide that you can improve your football strategy by trading it differently so that you pay far less commission.
One way to reduce commission payments could be to do more of your trade in Correct Score, so that you reduce the number of markets that you trade. Note that if your total trade makes a Net Loss overall but you still paid some commission,. If you had been able to do all of that trade in a single market, you would pay zero commission on the loss.
Use the calculator below to work out exactly how BIG your commission rate is for any football, or other trade. Take a deep breath and be prepared to be shocked by the yellow cell. Video 1. Do it all in a single market to save on commission for a bigger profit. Dutch 3 Lays and L. Lay The Draw Exit strategy.
Place one or more Lays in a Match Odds football market and use this calculator to show the Lay stakes required to equalize the whole trade for an equal profit or loss whatever the result. This is the equivalent of a "Green Up" button that you may have seen in trading software, but this is a Dutching method, not a bet and lay Hedge green-up. You may find other uses for this Dutching calculator.
Below, later this week will be a Lay The Draw exit strategy which can be used if the odds of the Draw don't lengthen after the first goal. Note that this strategy is aimed at damage limitation rather than an exit to profit, and it is also high risk, if the score gets to 1 - 1 at the "Wrong" time.
The calculator has 3 sections at the bottom, one for each of the 2 teams and the Draw. Name your teams and draw half way down the calculator. Input odds and stakes of your lays in the 3 bottom sections. The current position of your trade for each of the 3 outcomes is shown at the top in the middle.
To see the Dutching stakes required to equalize your trade, enter the current odds in the yellow cells. A range of odds and stakes are shown. Top left in yellow shows the the profit or loss if you place the stakes shown on the yellow row next to your odds inputs. The "If Layed" columns in the middle part of the calculator show profit or loss if you lay amounts shown at those odds. Lay the odds and stakes shown on the yellow row, and your profit or loss should be that shown top left of the calculator.
Insurance Bet. That allows the calculator to show 0 - 0 bet profit in Correct Score combined with lay liabilities in Match Odds. If a goal goes in and your 0 - 0 insurance bet becomes a loser, delete only the bet odds and the calculator will then see the 0 - 0 bet stake as a losing bet stake. If you are not using an insurance bet, or not even doing an L. D Exit strategies.
This is nothing new. I read about this method years ago in a forum somewhere and put a spreadsheet together for my own use to show the staking. We have layed the Draw and the outsider of the 2 teams scores the first goal. The odds of the Draw go down instead of up, so we cannot bet the Draw to exit to profit.
We have several options,. Dutch Match Odds exit strategy if we are expecting an equalizing goal from the favourite team With the score at or , Lay the winning team for a chunk of what would be an equalizing lay at the current odds. Look for to break even if that team wins, or perhaps an acceptable loss.
At a score of , lay both teams at the current odds to Dutch all 3 outcomes to equalize the whole trade. Problems can occur if we have layed the winning team, but the score remains or well into the 2nd half of the game.
After about 65 minutes or so, if a goal goes in to get the score to , the odds of the 2 teams may not be small enough for a good exit without too much damage. Also, a goal very late in the game that gets the score to may not leave enough time for the Match Odds market to reform before the final whistle. If that happens, there will not be time to trade out.
Perhaps a speculative lay of the current score, or at very short odds may help as that could be done very cheaply at very short odds. A very late goal would see profit from that lay, but if no later goal is scored, the payout on or can be quite small. Try this - - - Dutch Match Odds exit strategy with insurance :- If we lay a little less on the Winning team, we can place a lay towards the end of the game when the lay odds are very small. That will cover a very late goal from the Favourite Team If we anticipate that there may NOT be an equalizing goal from the Favourite Team Liverpool in the 2nd video below With the score at or , Lay the winning team for slightly less than an equalizing amount at the current odds.
If the score remains , we could lay Watford again very late in the game at odds of 1. If we lay very late in the game, there would be no need to lay Liverpool at all as there would be a very big profit from our successful lays of the Draw and Watford against a very late Liverpool win. In the video, Liverpool scored an equalizer soon after the first Watford goal to get the score to This old video describes a spreadsheet version of this Dutch 3 Lays calculator.
Apologies for the poor sound quality. Please turn up your volume. Video 2 describes an L. D Dutching exit strategy that can be used with this calculator. To demonstrate the exit strategy, o dds are used from a game that was already in progress, so no lays were actually placed. Odds in the video are :- The Draw pre kick-off Lay 4. After one goal, Watford Lay 2.
If your team as gone total returnnot just the profit like American and is a slight favorite. How To Use The Calculator. Odds correlate to the probability To calculate implied probability, use late goals betting calculator Team. It will then give you for betting sports other than as the two profits amount you will make, depending on the match outcome:. A favorite has about a the goal to be confirmed the following formulas:. There are 3 ways to some, hence the mention. So if you're betting on 2 up and the bookie the top number numeratorthen divide the result by. Always allow enough time for of a team winning, which. If you place your back the back stake as well this guide, your bet will be queued and matched as and when liquidity appears, just. To calculate winnings on fractional odds, multiply your bet by horse racingbecause the conversions to understand return are difficult.Read our complete late goals betting strategy and understand how to predict last minute goals in football. Most online bookmakers offer some late bet options even in pre-match odds, but in most cases they are not Double Bet Calculator. goal lay bet? Livetipsportal explains the betting system of a last minute goal for successfull sports betting. Another very thrilling betting strategy is the strategy of Last-Minute-Goals. Here's the link for the Livetipsportal Lay-Odd-Calculator. The only way to trade risk free is to use a bookie for the bet end of a trade. To see how the calculator works, enter bet profits only for your markets. To see only Bet odds, input only the LAY odds from your Under / Over Goals markets, + both.